A final 6 for Player wins 46.95% of the time in baccarat, loses 38.61% and ties 14.44%. A final 7 wins 61.07%. An 8 wins 83.46%, and a 9 never loses. Low totals are close to hopeless: a final 0 never wins at all.
Here is the full table for every final total, worked out exactly for an 8-deck shoe.
Odds of winning with each final total
"Final total" means the hand's points after any third card. We counted every possible card order and recorded how each hand ended.
| Player wins | Banker wins | Tie | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player ends on 0 | 0.00% | 93.83% | 6.17% |
| Player ends on 1 | 6.61% | 87.88% | 5.50% |
| Player ends on 2 | 11.93% | 82.68% | 5.39% |
| Player ends on 3 | 16.90% | 77.13% | 5.97% |
| Player ends on 4 | 23.20% | 67.03% | 9.77% |
| Player ends on 5 | 32.98% | 56.36% | 10.66% |
| Player ends on 6 | 46.95% | 38.61% | 14.44% |
| Player ends on 7 | 61.07% | 23.70% | 15.22% |
| Player ends on 8 | 83.46% | 8.30% | 8.24% |
| Player ends on 9 | 91.75% | 0.00% | 8.25% |
Two things stand out. A 6 wins less than half the time, even though it feels strong, because Banker draws to beat it more often than people expect. And 6 and 7 are where Ties pile up, at 14% to 15%, since both sides stand on those totals so often.
A final 6 wins less than half the time. A 7 is the first total that wins more often than not.
Why Banker's totals do better than Player's
The same total is worth more for Banker. A final 5 wins 32.98% for Player but 43.05% for Banker. A final 4 wins 23.20% for Player and 34.98% for Banker.
That is the drawing rule at work. Banker decides after seeing Player's third card, so Banker often stands on 4 or 5 exactly when Player's hand is weak. The reasons are in baccarat third card rules, and the size of the overall gap is in baccarat Banker vs Player.
A Banker 5 wins about 10 points more often than a Player 5. That is Banker's edge in miniature.
A 9 never loses, but it still ties about one time in twelve.
How often each final total shows up
Player ends on 6, 7, 8 or 9 about 13.3% of the time each, and on 0 about 9.4%. Totals 1 to 5 each show up about 7.4%. Naturals and the "stand on 6 or 7" rule are what pile hands up at the top.
None of this predicts anything. At the start of a fresh shoe every bet has a negative expected value. Only the cards left in the shoe can change that, and only briefly. Betting systems can't.
See the odds update after every hand
These are full-shoe numbers. The live numbers move with the cards left in the shoe.
After each hand you enter the cards and tap Calculate, and Baccarator recalculates the odds and expected value for Banker, Player, Tie, pairs and side bets from the cards still in the shoe. If a bet briefly turns positive, it shows a Kelly sizing suggestion. That only appears when expected value is positive, it is a long-run average, and the next hand can still lose. Positive moments are rare and short. You can choose 6 or 8 decks and practice with virtual chips, with no real money involved.
Baccarat final total odds FAQ
How often does a 6 win in baccarat?
When Player ends on 6, it wins 46.95% of hands, loses 38.61% and ties 14.44%. When Banker ends on 6, it wins 44.49%.
What are the odds of winning with 7 in baccarat?
Player wins 61.07% of hands with a final 7 and ties 15.22%. Banker wins 59.86% with a final 7.
Can a 9 lose in baccarat?
No. A 9 can only win or tie. Player's 9 wins 91.75% and ties 8.25%.
Baccarator is a math tool for education. No real-money gambling. 21+ only.
